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Remember psychohistory, from Asimov's Foundation series? George Friedman uses geopolitics, which is essentially the same thing: formulas to chart trends and predict future results, in the political/economic sphere. Friedman explains how cultural groups (mostly existing as nation/states, such as the U.S.) have existential goals and societal momentum that set them on a fairly predictable path. Friedman's insight can be witnessed in his prediction of a detante between the U.S. and Iran; the guy knows what he's talking about. It's fascinating to match up ongoing world events with his analysis. It's all very plausible, but Friedman does occasionally go from geopolitical predictions to speculative specifics: my favorite is where Japan launches asteroid missiles at the U.S. moon base.
HPB Staff Review